A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
